Rocket Report: SpaceX Expansion and Global Launch Insights

By Stephen Clark • May 23, 2025

Introduction

Welcome to Edition 7.45 of the Rocket Report, your deep dive into the latest developments across small, medium, and heavy-lift launchers worldwide. This issue covers SpaceX’s West Coast ramp-up at Vandenberg, India’s rare PSLV anomaly, China’s diverse fleet in action, and more. We’ve also added technical deep dives and market analysis sections to give you broader context and expert perspectives.

Spaceplanes: A Niche Under Pressure

Since the retirement of NASA’s Space Shuttle in 2011, winged vehicles have played second fiddle to vertical rockets. The USAF’s uncrewed X-37B, China’s parallel program, and Virgin Galactic’s suborbital tourism XP-style craft are the only active spaceplanes. Advocates once touted their runway turnaround and aerodynamic crossrange capabilities, but today’s leaders—SpaceX and Blue Origin—prefer simpler capsules and boosters that shed drag and mass.

Dr. Jane Smith, Aerospace Propulsion Expert: “Wings add 10–15% extra dry mass for minimal delta-V benefit. Modern reusable boosters regain cost advantages without the added complexity of thermal protection systems and landing gear.”

Nonetheless, companies like New Zealand’s Dawn Aerospace and France’s AndroMach are pushing suborbital demonstrators. Their challenge remains balancing wing loading (up to 400 kg/m² at Mach 3) with thermal protection and propulsion efficiency for brief exoatmospheric hops.

China’s Commercial Rockets Back in Orbit

CAS Space relaunched its Kinetica-1 solid-fuel booster from Jiuquan on May 21, deploying six satellites into a 500×600 km sun-synchronous orbit with better than ±5 km insertion accuracy. This fourth generation of 2-tonne-class launchers features a three-stage composite propellant system and has now flown seven missions since 2022.

“With Mission Y7, Kinetica-1 has placed 63 satellites (6 tonnes total) on orbit. We plan 12 missions in 2025 alone,” CAS Space posted on X.

A larger liquid-fueled Kinetica-2 with a LOX/kerosene first stage (300 kN sea-level thrust, CH₄/LOX upper stage) is slated for late-year debut, aiming at 5-tonne LEO payloads.

French Government Backs AndroMach Spaceplanes

Paris-based AndroMach secured a contract from CNES to test its Banger v1 engine, a pressure-fed biopropane/LOX thruster delivering 15 kN of thrust at 300 s Isp. Early turbojet-roped suborbital vehicles will fly horizontal takeoff and landing by 2027, reaching Mach 2 and 20 km altitude.

The follow-on orbital shuttle, ÉTOILE, will piggyback on small launchers, carry 100 kg to LEO, and perform runway landings. CNES funds remain undisclosed, but AndroMach aims to validate regenerative cooling cycles, erosion rates, and flight-representative ignition transients on the demonstrator hardware.

Dawn Aerospace’s Aurora Now Taking Orders

In collaboration with Aviation Week & Space Technology, Dawn Aerospace announced open ordering for Aurora Mk-II, a 4.8 m remotely piloted craft. Aurora uses a hybrid turbofan/rocket configuration: a jet turbine for climb to 15 km, then a liquid jet A/LOX rocket providing 30 kN thrust for exoatmospheric flight to 100 km.

• Length: 4.8 m; Wingspan: 3.2 m
• Max payload: 10 kg for 3 minutes of microgravity
• Turnaround goal: <4 hours by 2028

Dawn’s airline-style business model lets operators purchase and operate their own Aurora vehicles, bringing aircraft-like dispatch reliability (>0.95 mission success) to suborbital research.

India’s PSLV-C61: A First Failure in 21 Launches

ISRO’s workhorse PSLV-C61 lifted off on May 18 carrying the RISAT-1B radar reconnaissance satellite (1,250 kg). All stages performed nominally until the solid motor of the third stage (PS3) experienced a chamber pressure drop of 18% at T+350 s, cutting thrust from 540 kN to 440 kN.

V. Narayanan, ISRO Chairman: “Telemetry shows normal burn until PS3, then pressure fell. Investigations on propellant grain integrity and nozzle throat erosion are underway.”

The vehicle deviated at Mach 24 (5.66 km/s) and fell into the Indian Ocean. This lapse interrupts an eight-year, 21-flight success streak. ISRO plans static-fire tests of spare PS3 hardware and enhanced acoustic damping to prevent future anomalies.

SES Partners with Impulse Space for Rapid GEO Injection

Satellite operator SES inked a multi-launch deal for Impulse Space’s Helios methalox kick stage—6-minute burns at 350 kN, 360 s Isp—to place 4-tonne satellites directly into GEO within eight hours post-LEO drop. This cuts months-long electric propulsion drifts and extends satellite lifespans by 10–15%.

The first dedicated mission is slated for 2027 on a medium-lift launcher. SES CEO Adel Al-Saleh noted, “Faster orbital insertion lets us accelerate service delivery and reduce on-orbit consumption.”

China’s Launch Patches: Cultural Symbolism or Misdirection?

Recent top-secret Long March missions carrying TJS reconnaissance satellites featured patches depicting Buddhist Four Heavenly Kings. The artistic emblems—an umbrella-holding guardian, an all-seeing deity, a swordmaster, and a snake-wrapping protector—may hint at ISR, ELINT, or missile warning roles, though analysts caution against over-interpretation.

China’s Tianwen-2 Asteroid and Comet Sample Return

China’s second deep-space probe, Tianwen-2, is scheduled for Long March 3B launch May 28 (UTC) from Xichang. Primary target: 469219 Kamoʻoalewa (2016 HO3)—a ~100 m quasi-satellite. The 6,000 kg spacecraft will collect up to 200 g of regolith and return samples in late 2027, then proceed to rendezvous with main-belt comet 311P/PanSTARRS for remote sensing.

Advanced ion thrusters (30 kW, 4 AU range) and a deployable solar array (20 m²) underpin the 7-year mission. Success would mark China’s first non-lunar sample return.

Landspace’s Methalox Zhuque-2E Takes Two

Privately-funded Landspace flew its upgraded Zhuque-2E with a widened 3.6 m fairing, delivering six remote sensing satellites into a 550 × 580 km orbit. Each of the seven TQ-12 methalox engines produces 70 kN at sea level, 320 s Isp in vacuum, and features regenerative cooling loops.

The company is developing Zhuque-3, a stainless-steel reusable first stage concept (8 × 200 kN engines) targeting 15 t to LEO. Observers note visual parallels to SpaceX’s Falcon architecture but stress independent metallurgy and propellant choices.

FAA Clears SpaceX for Starship Flight 9

The FAA approved Starship Flight 9 from Starbase, Texas, following two prior failures. Compliance included updated Launch Commit Criteria, expanded sea-range closures, and real-time telemetry downlinks for safety officers. Flight 9 aims to test full-stack header tanks and eight Raptor 2 engines on the booster and six on the ship.

Space Force Criticizes ULA Vulcan Delays

Maj Gen Stephen Purdy criticized ULA’s Vulcan program in testimony to the House. Vulcan’s BE-4 engines (2 x 2,400 kN thrust) and Centaur V upper stage have encountered integration setbacks, delaying four national security launches. Originally scheduled for 2020, Vulcan’s certified debut slipped to 2023, and now to 2026, eroding trust with military stakeholders.

“Prime contractors must re-establish baselines, a culture of accountability, and deliver capabilities at speed, on cost, and on schedule,” Purdy wrote.

SpaceX’s Vandenberg Expansion Plan

SpaceX’s Draft Environmental Impact Statement for SLC-6 at Vandenberg proposes doubling the launch cadence from 50 to 100 annually, adding Falcon Heavy capability, two new booster landing pads, and demolition of legacy Delta IV facilities. Projections for 2027–2028 forecast 70 Falcon 9 launches (SLC-4E & SLC-6) and 5 Falcon Heavy flights per year, enabled by automated pad processing, rapid propellant hookups, and integrated road-transportable gantries.

Next Three Launches

1. May 23: Falcon 9 | Starlink 11-16 | Vandenberg SFB, CA | 20:36 UTC
2. May 24: Falcon 9 | Starlink 12-22 | CC SFB, FL | 17:19 UTC
3. May 27: Falcon 9 | Starlink 17-1 | Vandenberg SFB, CA | 16:14 UTC

Technical Deep Dive: Propellant Choices and Engine Architectures

Rockets today split across three propellant families: kerosene/LOX (RP-1), methane/LOX (methalox), and hypergolics for upper stages. Methalox offers cleaner combustion (lower coking), simpler tank pressurization via boil-off, and mid-range performance (330 s Isp). However, cryogenic complexity demands new insulation and ground support.

By contrast, RP-1 systems—used on Falcon 9 and PSLV—yield 300 s Isp with mature handling but suffer turbine erosion and require regular engine refurbishment. Engineers debate tradeoffs: “For reusable first stages, methalox is proving optimal,” says Dr. Alan Perez of AeroDynamics Research.

Market Dynamics and Competitive Landscape

Global launch demand remains robust at ~140 launches in 2025, driven by constellations, defense, and deep-space missions. Commercial small launchers face price pressures, with 200–500 kg payloads selling for $5–8 million. Consolidation is likely as capital-intensive mid-sized players—those targeting 5–10 t to LEO—struggle to scale. Observers expect further mergers or strategic partnerships by 2026.

Future Outlook: Sustainability and Innovation

Looking ahead, emphasis on rapid reusability, green propellants (methane, liquefied natural gas), and autonomous pad operations will dominate. Hybrid vehicles combining air-breathing engines for ascent (SABRE, NEBULA) may reemerge, though their development risk remains high. The interplay between government contracts and venture funding will shape which architectures survive the next decade.

Stephen Clark is a space reporter at Ars Technica, covering private space firms and global agencies. Follow for the latest insights into rockets, satellites, and deep-space exploration.