NASA’s Next Frontier in a Changing Political Landscape
Recap of the Discussion
In our first Ars Live event of 2025, senior space editor Eric Berger assembled Reuters’ Joey Roulette and WaPo’s Christian Davenport to dissect NASA’s path under the second Trump administration. Over an hour, the panel scrutinized uncertainties at NASA—ranging from leadership upheaval to high-risk mission architectures—and weighed prospects for returning humans to the Moon, a crewed Mars expedition, and even space-based missile defense.
Technical Spotlight: OSIRIS Mars Imaging
The event opened with spectacular imagery from the ESA/NASA OSIRIS camera, which captured Mars in true color at 5 km/pixel during its recent flyby. OSIRIS employs a 2048×2048 CCD sensor behind a 25 cm Ritchey–Chrétien telescope, with a spectral range of 250–1000 nm and onboard 12-bit digitization. Data rates peaked at 1.5 Mbps over X-band downlinks, enabling global mosaics and targeted crater studies.
Artemis and the Lunar Architecture
With the cancellation of Jared Isaacman’s nomination for NASA administrator and the elevation of former USAF Lt. Gen. Steve Kwast—a staunch advocate for space militarization—the Artemis program faces fresh scrutiny. Artemis III’s Block 1 SLS variant aims for a 2027 lunar landing, powered by two RS-25 engines (each producing 1.8 MN thrust) and a single ICPS upper stage. Meanwhile, Orion’s European Service Module delivers 24 kW solar electric power and 6 kN of main engine thrust. Budget shortfalls in FY 2026 threaten delays unless commercial landers from SpaceX or Blue Origin fill funding gaps.
Crewed Mars Mission Feasibility
Christian Davenport framed human Mars missions as a multi-decadal endeavor. Proposed architectures—NASA’s Evolvable Mars Campaign vs. SpaceX’s Starship-driven plan—differ sharply. The former relies on SLS and Lunar Gate staging at 384 000 km, while the latter envisions 100 m tall Starships refueled in LEO. Both require radiation shielding of ≥30 g/cm² and closed-loop life-support systems with 85% water recovery efficiency. Current technology readiness levels (TRLs) for in-situ resource utilization hover around 5–6, demanding aggressive technology maturation.
Space-Based Missile Defense: The “Golden Dome” Concept
“A space-based interceptor system would upend traditional nuclear deterrence norms, creating instability on Earth as much as in orbit,” Joey Roulette warned.
The so-called Golden Dome would deploy kinetic kill vehicles (~500 kg each) in low-Earth orbit, guided by infrared sensor constellations and high-precision Kalman filtering. Proposed delta-V budgets reach 6 km/s per interceptor, with reaction masses stored in cryogenic tanks. Critics highlight orbital debris risk and strategic ambiguity over civil vs. military objectives.
Additional Analysis
1. China’s Lunar Ambitions
Meanwhile, China’s Chang’e 8 mission—targeting Shackleton Crater in 2028—plans a 2 m regolith excavator and solar-wind helium-3 harvesting experiment. Its progress intensifies the US–China space race and raises IP and export-control questions under ITAR.
2. Commercial Partnerships and Budget Risks
NASA’s pivot toward commercial crew and cargo (with SpaceX Crew 6 and Starliner OFT-2) offsets some budgetary strain. However, the drop in science funding—from $7.5 billion in FY 2024 to a requested $6.8 billion in FY 2026—jeopardizes flagship missions like Europa Clipper and Roman Space Telescope.
Conclusion
These are turbulent times for NASA. Leadership uncertainty, political friction between Trump and Elon Musk, and strategic debates over militarization paint a volatile picture. Yet, as Christian Davenport observed, “People will look back on these discussions as a seminal moment.” The decisions made today will chart humanity’s course from lunar orbit to Mars and beyond.