Rocket Report: Rideshare Issues and Tiangong Crew Launch

SLS Block 1B Mobile Launch Tower Progress

At NASA’s Kennedy Space Center, technicians continue to assemble the 355-foot (108 m) mobile launch tower for the Space Launch System Block 1B. This upgraded tower will support higher stacks and additional umbilicals for the new Exploration Upper Stage. Recent milestone achievements include:

• Installation of the 12th structural segment, bringing the tower to 280 feet (85 m).
• Routing over 10 miles (16 km) of high-voltage power cables and redundancy loops.
• Integration of cryogenic fuelling lines rated for LH2 flow rates up to 1,200 kg/min at –253 °C.

Inspector General forecasts place operational readiness in spring 2029, with costs to exceed $2.7 billion. However, potential delays to the SLS Block 1B core stage could push first use closer to 2030.

Astra’s Strategic Pivot to Rocket 4 and Point-to-Point Delivery

Astra emerged from Chapter 11 in late 2024 and has refocused on Rocket 4, a two-stage, LOX/RP-1 launch vehicle designated under a $44 million DOD contract. Key specifications:

• First stage: nine 80 kN electric‐pump-fed RP-1 engines, 3 m diameter; total thrust ~720 kN.
• Second stage: single 90 kN vacuum-optimized engine; payload to LEO ~400 kg.
• Point-to-point capability: 590 kg of cargo delivered suborbitally in under 1 hour.

Astra’s CEO, Chris Kemp, states the initial test flights will include a suborbital hop and a full orbital mission—potentially launched from a mobile pad in Western Australia in 2026. Expert Aerospace Analysts note this will be one of the first operational demonstrations of rocket-based rapid global logistics.

US Army’s Dark Eagle: Hypersonic Glide Vehicle Developments

The Long Range Hypersonic Weapon has been officially christened “Dark Eagle.” The system uses a two-stage solid rocket booster to accelerate a Mach 8+ glide vehicle into the upper atmosphere, where it maneuvers using thermal-resistant control surfaces and an onboard inertial navigation unit. Key capabilities include:

• Operational range: 1,500+ km with <±10 m CEP.
• Glide vehicle mass: approximately 2,000 kg.
• Projected deployment: battery-level units by 2027.

Following the December 2024 “all-up round” at Cape Canaveral, the Army plans another test this week, constrained by Eastern Range window allocations due to concurrent Atlas V and SpaceX operations.

Minotaur IV’s Niche within National Reconnaissance

Northrop Grumman’s Minotaur IV leverages surplus LGM-118A Peacekeeper solid motors. Its four-stage, all-solid configuration provides:

• Liftoff Thrust: ~3,300 kN.
• Payload to SSO: ~1,700 kg.
• Cost per mission: ~$30 million.

With at least two missions reserved in 2026—one for Space Test Program satellites and another for a weather observatory—Minotaur IV continues to fill the payload gap between small commercial vehicles and Falcon 9-class launchers.

Rising NASA Launch Prices in the Reusable Era

A new Acta Astronautica study reveals NASA’s average launch contract prices have risen by 2.82% per year (inflation-adjusted) from 1996 to 2024. Surprisingly, the advent of Falcon 9 reuse hasn’t translated into lower NASA contracts. Contributing factors include:

• NASA’s unique requirements for payload integration, cleanliness, and schedule priority.
• Lack of head-to-head competition for Falcon 9 in NASA bids since 2016.
• Uplift for launch vehicle modifications and mission assurance certification.

Range Delays Affecting ULA’s Atlas V and Amazon Kuiper Deployment

Following weather-related scrubs on April 9, ULA must now wait until April 28 for another Eastern Range window to launch 27 Kuiper satellites on Atlas V. Industry observers suggest the delay may stem from Air Force hypersonic tests (Dark Eagle) occupying maritime exclusion zones, though the Space Force has not confirmed.

SpaceX Cargo Dragon CRS-32 and Secret STP-H10 Payload

CRS-32 delivered 2,168 kg of pressurized and 750 kg of unpressurized cargo, including an atomic clock demonstration. Of particular note is the STP-H10 experiment pallet—a collection of unclassified Space Test Program sensors whose specifics were omitted from NASA’s press kit. Analysts speculate that heightened security protocols for defense payloads on commercial platforms are at play.

Pitfalls of Rideshare: Atmos Space Cargo’s Phoenix Reentry

On April 21, SpaceX’s Bandwagon 3 mission deployed multiple payloads and Atmos Space Cargo’s Phoenix reentry demonstrator. A last-minute trajectory shift—imposed to satisfy a South Korean radar satellite’s injection profile—altered Phoenix’s reentry point by 20° longitude, moving it from the Indian Ocean to the South Atlantic. This adjustment prevented ship recovery and complicated telemetry acquisition, underscoring a key rideshare drawback: secondary customers have no control over mission timing or flight path.

Ariane 6 P160C Booster Qualification Test

ESA successfully fired the P160C solid strap-on booster for 140 seconds at its Guiana Space Centre facility. The 3 m-diameter motor carries an additional 14 t of propellant versus the P120C, boosting thrust by 8%. This upgrade is essential for the 16 Amazon Kuiper launches slated on Ariane 6 and will also enhance Vega C payload capacity by ~15%.

Blue Origin’s New Glenn Upper Stage Upgrades

In a 15-second hot fire, Blue Origin validated the BE-3U engine upgrade from 173 klbf to 175 klbf thrust. The development plan calls for a full-duration burn test by summer 2025, ahead of New Glenn’s anticipated second flight in Q4 2025.

Shenzhou 20 Crew for Tiangong: Technical Insights

On April 24, a Long March 2F lofted Shenzhou 20 from Jiuquan. The three-astronaut crew—Commander Chen Dong, Pilot Chen Zhongrui, and Flight Engineer Wang Jie—docked within 6 hours. Their six-month mission will focus on:

• Bioreactor experiments in microgravity using the station’s Life Science Module.
• Installation of multilayer Whipple shielding on the station’s Zenith and Nadir ports.
• Testing of a robotic external inspection arm with high-resolution LIDAR.

Future Launches in the Calendar

• April 27 – Firefly Alpha | “Message in a Booster” | Vandenberg Space Force Base | 13:37 UTC
• April 27 – Long March 3B/E | Classified | Xichang | 15:55 UTC
• April 27 – Falcon 9 | Starlink 11-9 | Vandenberg SFB | 20:55 UTC

Deeper Analysis: Global Launch Market Dynamics

The juxtaposition of SLS cost overruns, commercial reusable vehicles, and emerging hypersonic cargo rockets signals a highly segmented launch marketplace. Governments face choices between assured access on legacy systems and cost-effective rideshare or rapid-delivery vehicles. Industry forecasts predict 20–25% CAGR in small launch demand through 2028, driven by LEO constellations and defense experiments.

Deeper Analysis: Regulatory and Policy Implications

Recent policy shifts—such as the US Commercial Space Launch Competitiveness Act updates and ESA’s Launcher Innovation Initiative—aim to reduce barriers for novel systems like Astra’s Rocket 4 and Atmos’s reentry demonstrators. However, export controls (ITAR/EAR) and spectrum allocation for tracking assets continue to restrict operational flexibility for rideshare and military payloads.