Rocket Report: SpaceX Starship Clash and Industry Review

Flying High: Midyear Reflection

As we pass the halfway mark of 2025, the launch sector has surprised even the most seasoned observers. SpaceX’s Starship V2 program continues to grapple with vehicle dynamics and cryogenic pressurization challenges, while Blue Origin’s New Glenn has enjoyed an unexpectedly smooth inaugural flight yet now faces supply-chain delays. Meanwhile, Honda’s reusable rocket hopper made an unheralded suborbital hop that underscores the growing interest in low-cost testbeds.

Isar Aerospace Secures €150 Million

German newcomer Isar Aerospace closed a €150 million (~ $175 million) convertible bond round with Eldridge Industries. The funding will expand production lines for Spectrum, a two-stage LOX/RP-1 launcher designed to deliver up to 1 000 kg to LEO. Spectrum’s first static-fire used nine DorniX E2 pumps producing 230 kN thrust each at sea level, and a vacuum-optimized second-stage engine with an expansion ratio of 150:1. Engineers are now refining the thrust-vector control actuators and optimizing the Merlin-inspired turbopump inlet flow to remedy the March loss-of-thrust anomaly.

Rocket Lab’s Electron: Record Turnaround

In New Zealand, Rocket Lab demonstrated its operational agility by flying two Electron vehicles from two adjacent pads within 48 hours—a new industry benchmark. The Rutherford engines, each delivering 25 kN in vacuum, now feature upgraded electric turbopumps with aerospace-grade bearings, reducing spin-up time by 15%. CEO Peter Beck suggests upcoming flights will integrate re-entry thermal protection for first-stage recovery trials later this year.

HyPrSpace’s Baguette One: A French Demonstrator

Under a new defense-agency agreement, HyPrSpace will launch its Baguette One hybrid-propulsion demonstrator from a mainland French missile test facility in 2026. The single-stage vehicle uses HTPB-based solid fuel with nitrous-oxide oxidizer, targeting 60 kN average thrust and >300 km suborbital apogee. CTO Sylvain Bataillard emphasizes the importance of dual-use infrastructure in establishing a sovereign European capability.

Firefly Eyes Sweden for Alpha Launches

A US–Sweden Technology Safeguards Agreement now permits Firefly Aerospace to export Alpha rockets for launches from Esrange Space Center as early as 2026. Alpha’s nine Reaver engines on the first stage produce 740 kN total thrust, while the Brigham upper stage’s six Lightning engines deliver 100 kN in vacuum. Swedish regulator oversight and real-time telemetry-sharing protocols will safeguard sensitive technology.

Amazon’s Project Kuiper: ULA Takes the Helm

On June 23, United Launch Alliance flew its third Atlas V mission for Amazon’s Kuiper broadband constellation, placing 27 satellites into a 450 km circular orbit using the 551 configuration (five solid boosters, dual RL10 engines). With 3 232 satellites planned, Amazon’s multibillion-dollar contract calls for Atlas V, Vulcan Centaur, Ariane 6, New Glenn, and Falcon 9. As production now averages 30 pods per month, the focus shifts to match this cadence with reliable launch vehicles.

Falcon 9’s Fourth Commercial Crew Flight

Retired NASA astronaut Peggy Whitson commanded the latest Axiom mission aboard Crew Dragon Grace (C213). Powered by Merlin 1D+ engines (845 kN sea-level thrust), the Falcon 9 first stage executed a pinpoint landing on ASDS Just Read the Instructions. Whitson highlighted Grace’s upgraded life-support cooling loops and redundant flight computers, enhancing mission resilience.

Ariane 6 Cadence and Industrial Ramp-Up

Arianespace CEO David Cavaillolès reconfirmed plans to reach 10 Ariane 6 launches per year by 2027. The Ariane 64 variant, with four P120C solid boosters and a VINCI‐powered upper stage delivering 180 kN in vacuum, flies next in August. Supply-chain modernization—particularly composite motor casings and turbopump metallurgy—remains critical to meeting this ambitious schedule.

SLS Booster Nozzle Failure Analysis

During a June 26 static test in Promontory, UT, Northrop Grumman’s new PBAN-based solid rocket motor encountered a nozzle structural failure 100 seconds into burn. Visual and high-speed IR imagery show flame penetration just above the carbon-phenolic nozzle extension, leading to catastrophic disintegration. Propulsion experts attribute the incident to possible hot-gas intrusion from erosion channels and recommend revisiting insulation liner thickness, subscale flow trials, and acoustically induced vibrations.

RS-25 Engine Test at Stennis

On June 20, NASA quietly static-fired the first new RS-25 cryogenic engine since the Shuttle era. Delivering 2 300 kN thrust at a mixture ratio of 6:1, the L3Harris-built unit ran for a full mission-duration profile. Aerojet’s additive-manufactured injectors and GRCop-84 channel walls were validated, though NASA withheld livestream coverage, focusing on detailed performance telemetry.

SpaceX’s Starship Border Incident

Earlier this month, a Starship prototype suffered a fueling-port overpressure explosion at Boca Chica, hurling debris across the Rio Grande into Mexico’s Tamaulipas state. President Claudia Sheinbaum has threatened legal action under international environmental and property-damage statutes. SpaceX teams report 70% debris recovery hampered by private-property access issues and are collaborating with Mexican authorities on environmental impact assessments.

Deep Dive: Solid Rocket Motor Materials and Nozzle Erosion

Solid rocket motors rely on layered insulation, an ablative liner, and a composite overwrap. The Promontory failure underscores the need to enhance phenolic-resin stability at 3 000 °F gas temps. Dr. Jane Smith, a propulsion materials specialist at Caltech, notes:

“Increasing silica content and optimizing fiber orientation in the carbon-phenolic matrix can yield a 20% improvement in erosion resistance under transient thermal loads.”

Expert Roundtable: SLS vs. Emerging Heavy-Lift Alternatives

• Dr. Alan Thompson (NASA consultant): “Commercial systems now offer >80% of SLS payload at half the recurring cost. Artemis schedule flexibility demands nimble options.”
• Prof. Maria Rodriguez (Space Policy Institute): “Geopolitical imperatives favor maintaining SLS as a sovereign capability, but budgetary pressures are intense.”
• Elena Wu (Morgan Stanley): “Investors await performance data from Vulcan, New Glenn, and Starship to reallocate capital in 2026.”

Market Outlook: Global Launch Demand Through 2025

Industry analysts forecast 200 orbital launches in 2025, a 15% increase over 2024. Small-sat constellations and LEO research platforms drive medium-lift demand, while heavy-lift vehicles compete for lunar and deep-space missions. Grand View Research projects the global launch market will exceed $15 billion by decade’s end, with reusability and rapid turnaround as key growth levers.

Next Three Launches

• June 28: Falcon 9 | Starlink 10-34 | Cape Canaveral SFS | 04:26 UTC
• June 28: Electron | “Symphony in the Stars” | Māhia Peninsula | 06:45 UTC
• June 28: H-IIA | GOSAT-GW | Tanegashima | 16:33 UTC

Stephen Clark is Ars Technica’s space reporter, covering the intersection of technology, policy, and business in the expanding orbital economy.